Data courtesy of the Ontario Ministry of Health.

If the pandemic continues on its current course, Ontario could see new COVID-19 numbers hit as many as 1000 a day in the first half of October.

That’s according to provincial health officials, who released new modelling for the fall, showing the number of new cases are doubling every 10 to 12 days.

“With the recent rise in cases, we limited private social gatherings and tightened public health measures for businesses and organizations to reduce the transmission in our communities,” said Dr. David Williams, Chief Medical Officer of Health. “We wanted to release this modelling to be open about the challenges our province faces, and the important work we all need to do to flatten the curve.”

The Chief Medical Officer of Health and other public health experts will continue to closely monitor the evolving situation to advise if and when public health restrictions need further adjustment, or if a community-specific or region-specific approach should be taken.

Meantime, the province reported 635 new cases today, including 288 in Toronto, 97 in Peel, 64 in Ottawa, and 41 in York Region.

A little closer to home, Windsor-Essex is reporting six new cases today. One Windsor retirement home remains in outbreak status with two staff and five residents suffering from COVID-19.

At last check, Chatham-Kent has four active cases of the virus, all of whom contracted it through a close contact with another positive case.