Before the writ was even dropped, the race is on for candidates in the upcoming by-election in the riding of Lambton-Kent-Middlesex.
A Liaison poll commissioned by the National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada shows PC candidate Steve Pinsonneault has an early lead to replace former MPP Monte McNaughton.
Conducted from March 27-28, 2024, using interactive voice response technology, the Lambton-Kent-Middlesex poll surveyed 403 voters and has a margin of error of =/- 4.88, 19 times out of 20. A similar poll was conducted for the riding of Milton, which is also heading into a by-election.
“Lambton-Kent-Middlesex is trending Tory,” said David Valentin, principal at Liaison Strategies in a news release. “This is not a surprise in a long-time PC stronghold, though the PC vote is currently down 20 points. Some of that was probably unavoidable, long-time MPP Monte McNaughton is no longer on the ballot and by-elections are sometimes a way for voters to send a message to the governing party. Low turnout may see the PC vote trend higher if their committed supporters make it out to the polls.”
Of those polled, 39% said they were either decided or leaning towards voting PC in the LKM by-election. Liberal candidate Cathy Burghardt-Jesson came in at 26%, followed by NDP candidate Kathryn Shailer at 14%, and Andraena Tilgner with the Green Party at 12%. The New Blue Party was not included in the Liaison poll.
“We’ll learn a lot from these by-elections as the parties test-run their campaign messages,” Valentin said. “These will be the first contests held with Bonnie Crombie as the new leader. Both ridings will have important pieces of information as we approach the 2026 Ontario election.”
